By Lameck Baraza
Siaya County’s political landscape is poised for a major shift, moving away from seasoned politicians who once thrived under the dominance of Raila Odinga’s ODM party, where power was easily clinched with little struggle.
Political analysts suggest that there is a strong possibility of a candidate outside ODM succeeding current governor James Orengo in the upcoming general elections, alongside other key positions in the county.
Charles Ogada, a political analyst from Ugunja, explained that residents now prioritise economic liberation over “activism driven politics.”
He noted that MDG’s candidate, Ugenya MP David Ochieng, stands a better chance of winning the gubernatorial race in 2027 due to his development-oriented leadership and proven track record.
Ogada argued that Orengo, despite his stature as a seasoned politician, has failed to elevate Siaya County beyond the achievements of his predecessor, Cornel Rasanga.
“At the moment, there is no flagship project associated with Orengo three years into his tenure that could attract votes in 2027,” Ogada observed.
He added that Ochieng has gained trust even in Orengo’s backyard, leaving the governor without a stronghold ahead of the 2027 political contest.
“All those who supported Orengo in the 2022 general elections have shifted because he does not want to work with other leaders and opinion shapers,” Ogada lamented.
In 2022, Orengo enjoyed the backing of all six MPs from Siaya County. Today, however, it is perceived that only one remains in his corner, while the rest have aligned with Ochieng.
Ochieng is said to enjoy the support of top leaders in Siaya, including CS Opiyo Wandayi, Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, Alego MP Samuel Atandi, Bondo MP Gideon Ochanda, and several Siaya MCAs.
Alfayo Abuge, another political analyst from Alego constituency, emphasised that the era when politicians could ride on Raila’s blessings to win elections without posters or agents is long gone.
He explained that leaders must now convincingly demonstrate to voters their ability to deliver development before being elected.
Abuge further noted that Orengo’s entry into the governorship race diminished his political supremacy, as he was accustomed to national politics, unlike local politics that demand strong management skills.
"As things stand, the Siaya governor can be defeated by any candidate, having lost grip on the ground compared to the past when he enjoyed Raila’s blessings,” Abuge concluded.
And to throw a spanner in the works, Orengo’s deputy, William Oduol has declared a bid to unseat his boss in 2027.
Among others eyeing Orengo’s seat is former Rarieda MP Noicholasu Odero Gumbo.